Politics Uncategorized

2016 Election Predictions


The day is almost here! After a long, grueling campaign season, which has quite possibly been the nastiest, divisive and ugly campaign in modern history, in under 48 hours, America will decide who will be its new leaders.

There is a TON at stake this year, with all 435 House seats up for grabs, the balance of power in the Senate at stake, numerous Gubernatorial seats in jeopardy, and, oh yeah, that presidential race.

After poll watching like a hawk for what seems like forever and crunching the numbers, it’s time to reveal my predictions for what will happen on Tuesday night. Since I’m sure someone will ask what my methodology is for making these decisions, let me get that out-of-the-way, and then, I’ll get down to business:

Toss-up states are defined as any state where the majority of polls in the average of polls, are within the margin of error. In other words, if most polls are within that margin, even if one candidate leads over the other, I classify the state as a toss-up. Conversely, any state where the majority of polls are OUTSIDE the margin of error, are classified as either “leaning” Republican, “solid” Republican, “leaning Democrat”, or “solid Democrat.”

“Leaning” means that the percentage is under 10 points (i.e. if Candidate A is up by between .1-9.9%, it’s leaning). Conversely, “solid” means that the percentage is 10+ points.

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I don’t have a magic 8 ball, and all predictions are fallible. Take them for what they’re worth, grab a bucket of popcorn on Tuesday night, and watch the show unfold alongside me. It’s gonna be an INTERESTING night.

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Presidential race:

Clinton 298 Electoral Votes, Trump 240 Electoral Votes (no toss-up states)
Clinton 240 Electoral Votes, Trump 175 Electoral Votes, (toss-ups included), 123 up for grabs.

9 total toss-up states, 3 leaning Democrat, 6 leaning Republican (totaling 65 Electoral Votes). Low level of confidence that Hillary wins.

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Senate:

New Hampshire – Leaning Republican (Republican hold)
Pennsylvania – Leaning Democrat (Democrat pickup)
Nevada – Leaning Republican (Republican pickup)
North Carolina – Leaning Republican (Republican hold)
Indiana – Leaning Republican (Republican hold)
Missouri – Leaning Republican (Republican hold)
Wisconsin – Leaning Democrat (Democrat pickup)
Iowa – Solid Republican (Republican hold)
Florida – Leaning Republican (Republican hold)
Ohio – Solid Republican (Republican hold)
Illinois – Solid Democrat (Democrat pickup)
Georgia – Solid Republican (Republican hold)
Colorado – Leaning Democrat (Democrat hold)
Arizona – Solid Republican (Republican hold)

Senate control – 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats. Republicans maintain their majority.

Toss-ups that could impact above tally – New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, Wisconsin. Moderate level of confidence that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.

House:

Democrats pickup between 10-15 seats, putting them between 198-203. Well short of taking back the House. Republicans maintain their majority. High level of confidence that Republicans maintain their majority.

Gubernatorial:

New Hampshire – Leaning Republican (Republican pickup)
North Carolina – Leaning Democrat (Democrat pickup)
Missouri – Leaning Republican (Republican pickup)
Indiana – Leaning Democrat (Democrat pickup)
Oregon – Solid Democrat (Democrat hold)
West Virginia – Leaning Democrat (Democrat hold)
Vermont – Leaning Republican (Republican pickup)
Montana – Solid Democrat (Democrat hold)
Delaware – Solid Democrat (Democrat hold)

Democrats lose 1 seat. Republicans control Governorships, 32-17. High level of confidence that Republicans maintain their majority.

Summary:

It looks like Hillary Clinton will be President-Elect on Tuesday night, though this race is still a toss-up. The RCP average of polls in a 4-way race stands at 44.9% Clinton, 42.7% Trump, 4.8% Johnson, and 1.8% Stein. Of the 9 polls currently factored in, 6 of them are within the margin of error. The last President to be elected with under 50% of the popular vote, was Bill Clinton.

If Trump can win Florida, that potentially swings the election into a 269-269 split, in which case, the election would go to the House. This election remains very fluid and difficult to call.

The Republicans look to be in good shape to maintain control of the Senate, as well as the House, though with smaller margins heading into the 115th Congress.

With Republicans maintaining control of most Governorships nationally, Congressional Districts should continue to favor Republicans.

This election could very well be one for the ages, folks. With such small margins in several key races, it could be a long night!


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Robert D. Cobb
Founder, Publisher and CEO of INSCMagazine. Works have appeared and featured in places such as Forbes, Huffington Post, ESPN and NBC Sports to name a few. Follow me on Twitter at @RobCobb_INSC, email me at [email protected]