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Fantasy Football Consistency: Quarterbacks

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Bob Lung shares the most consistent quarterbacks of 2016 and his projections for 2017. Follow him @bob_lung

The quarterback position for Fantasy Football purposes was easily the most waited on position to draft last year. Most of the top picks produced like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and even, Tom Brady in his limited number of games. This tier of players has distanced themselves from the other quarterbacks. Their consistency speaks for itself.


There were a ton of quarterbacks over 300 points (4pts per passing TD) in 2016. There were actually 18 for the second straight year. Heck, even Joe Flacco had 298 points and Tom Brady had 294 in only 12 games. So, obviously, the passing game is still alive and kicking in the NFL!

So, this must have been a banner year for quarterback consistency, right? Well, not so much. While there were certainly some of the “regular” studs near the top of the consistency charts, there were many “regulars” who were not.

Let’s look at those quarterbacks ranked in their projected Tier for 2017 and show you their 2016 total points and consistency and where they ranked in those categories in 2016.  Scoring method is the standard 4 points per TD passing and 6 for rushing plus 1 point for every 20 yards passing and 10 yards rushing.

So, let’s start with the top tier of quarterbacks.

TIER ONE

Player Name Total Points Pts Rank Total CG Total GP CR % 2016 Rank 2017 Tier 2017 Rank
Aaron Rodgers 435.30 1 14 16 88% 1 QB1A 1
Tom Brady 294.10 20 9 12 75% 5 QB1A 2
Andrew Luck 369.10 4 12 15 80% 3 QB1A 3

 

As I mentioned above, these three have separated themselves from the rest. Their combination of total points and consistency gives me confidence to draft them earlier than the other quarterbacks in 2017. I expect all three of them to earn an Expected Clutch Rate (ECR) of 80%+. So, how early should you draft them? Well, each league is different, but in a standard 12-team league, I believe the fourth round is the earliest to draft Rodgers followed by Brady and Luck in the fifth round. If you miss out on them because someone drafted them in the first through third rounds, don’t worry. There are plenty of solid consistent quarterbacks to draft in rounds six through eight.

TIER TWO

Player Name Total Points Pts Rank Total CG Total GP CR % 2016 Rank 2017 Tier 2017 Rank
Drew Brees 407.40 2 11 16 69% 6 QB1B 4
Matt Ryan 403.90 3 13 16 81% 2 QB1B 5
Kirk Cousins 367.85 5 11 16 69% 7 QB1B 6
Derek Carr 309.55 14 9 15 60% 10 QB1B 7
Marcus Mariota 314.00 13 10 15 67% 8 QB1B 8
Dak Prescott 335.55 6 12 16 75% 4 QB1B 9
Russell Wilson 324.35 10 7 16 44% 19 QB1B 10
Cam Newton 303.35 17 6 15 40% 22 QB1B 11
Ben Roethlisberger 301.35 18 9 14 64% 9 QB1B 12

 

Tier Two are the remaining QB1’s with a B rating. This equates to these quarterbacks having an ECR between 67% – 80%. As you can see from the 2016 Clutch Rates and rankings, not every quarterback in the QB1B Tier earned over 67%. We’re looking at you, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton!!! However, both quarterbacks have the ABILITY to earn that Clutch Rate and have done so in the past. Therefore, I have them ranked 10th and 11th, where other experts have them much higher. Drew Brees almost made the QB1A list, but his age and the loss of Brandin Cooks scares me a little. He’s still ranked fourth overall, so I’m not that concerned. Some of my favorite undervalued quarterbacks heading into 2017 are on this list. They are Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota. If you can draft them in rounds seven or eight, there’s great value to be had!

TIER THREE

Player Name Total Points Pts Rank Total CG Total GP CR % 2016 Rank 2017 Tier 2017 Rank
Matthew Stafford 335.05 7 8 16 50% 13 QB2A 13
Philip Rivers 334.00 8 8 16 50% 14 QB2A 14
Jameis Winston 321.30 11 7 16 44% 20 QB2A 15
Eli Manning 288.45 21 5 16 31% 30 QB2A 16
Andy Dalton 316.70 12 7 16 44% 21 QB2A 17
Carson Palmer 305.65 16 8 15 53% 12 QB2A 18
Blake Bortles 325.15 9 8 16 50% 15 QB2A 19
Tyrod Taylor 307.15 15 7 15 47% 18 QB2A 20
Carson Wentz 266.10 24 5 16 31% 31 QB2A 21

 

The next Tier are those quarterbacks, who can earn an ECR between 50% – 67%. Any quarterback too close to 50% is not worth drafting, even as a backup. As you can see, these quarterbacks were closer to 50% than 67%. If I was going to pick a backup from this group, my favorites would be Stafford, Manning, Dalton and Palmer. Mostly because of experience and the weapons around them to earn a Clutch Game when your starter is having a bye week. The remaining quarterbacks are young and inexperienced, which has led to much inconsistency in their past. One or two of them may improve their consistency in 2017, but I’m not willing to take that risk.

TIER FOUR

Player Name Total Points Pts Rank Total CG Total GP CR % 2016 Rank 2017 Tier 2017 Rank
Ryan Tannehill 244.75 25 5 13 38% 25 QB2B 22
Sam Bradford 274.15 22 6 15 40% 23 QB2B 23
Joe Flacco 298.15 19 5 16 31% 29 QB2B 24
Brian Hoyer 95.55 32 3 6 50% 16 QB2B 25
Alex Smith 270.50 23 5 15 33% 26 QB2B 26
Trevor Siemian 237.75 26 4 14 29% 32 QB2B 27
Josh McCown 75.10 35 2 5 40% 24 QB2B 28

 

This Tier is basically a hot mess of quarterbacks! Names like Tannehill and Flacco have been around for years and still couldn’t find consistency if it hit them in the face. None of these quarterbacks are worth drafting, unless it’s a two-quarterback league and even then, they’re marginal.

Well, there is your preview of the quarterbacks for 2016 and a preview of their consistency expectations for 2017. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Cam Newton or Russell Wilson on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

Don’t forget to check out how consistent your quarterbacks were in your scoring method by trying out the Clutch Report! Just click here!

To find out more about consistency in Fantasy Football and how it can help your teams, just go to www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. There you can find the 2017 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide and many more tools to help your team improve!

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