Bob Lung shares the most consistent wide receivers of 2016 and his projections for 2017. Follow him @bob_lung
Is the Fantasy world changing for wide receivers? Last year, there were only three receivers over 300 points and all three were barely over (307, 306 and 300, respectively). This is only half of the six receivers over 300 in 2015. In fact, this is the lowest number of 300 point receivers since there were only three in 2012. Therefore, it’s very important to identify the consistent receivers more than just the high scoring receivers.
Let’s look at those wide receivers ranked in their projected Tier for 2017 and show you their 2016 total points and consistency and where they ranked in those categories in 2016.
Let’s start with the top tier of wide receivers.
TIER ONE
| Player Name | Total Points | Pts Rank | Total CG | Total GP | CR % | 2016 Rank | 2017 Tier | 2017 Rank |
| Antonio Brown | 307.30 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 80% | 3 | WR1A | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 306.70 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 94% | 1 | WR1A | 2 |
| Odell Beckham | 298.60 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 75% | 6 | WR1A | 3 |
| Julio Jones | 259.90 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 64% | 21 | WR1A | 4 |
| Jarvis Landry | 233.50 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 75% | 8 | WR1A | 5 |
| Dez Bryant | 182.10 | 38 | 9 | 12 | 75% | 11 | WR1A | 6 |
| A.J. Green | 186.40 | 34 | 7 | 10 | 70% | 12 | WR1A | 7 |
| Michael Thomas | 259.70 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 80% | 4 | WR1A | 8 |
The top Tier is reserved for those receivers who have the ability to earn an Expected Clutch Rating of 80%+ in 2017. All of these receivers have once in their careers earned this high Clutch Rating. This includes last year’s rookie, Michael Thomas. He takes over the top spot in the Saints offense with the departure of Brandin Cooks. Antonio Brown is a Top 5 overall pick in 2017 and Jordy Nelson shouldn’t be too far behind. His current ADP is WR7/pick14, so you can wait a little bit if you want. If you notice Julio Jones low Clutch Rate of 64% in 2016, then you’ll understand my concern for his ability to reach 80% in 2017. Jones has earned 80% in the past, but the Falcons never did very well as a team when that happened. They went to the Super Bowl when Matt Ryan used ALL of his weapons in 2016. So, be cautious in taking Julio too high in 2017.
TIER TWO
| Player Name | Total Points | Pts Rank | Total CG | Total GP | CR % | 2016 Rank | 2017 Tier | 2017 Rank |
| T.Y. Hilton | 271.80 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 69% | 14 | WR1B | 9 |
| Mike Evans | 300.10 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 69% | 13 | WR1B | 10 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 197.40 | 27 | 9 | 16 | 56% | 32 | WR1B | 11 |
| Keenan Allen | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | WR1B | 12 |
| Amari Cooper | 226.90 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 23 | WR2A | 13 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 228.30 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 69% | 16 | WR2A | 14 |
| Michael Crabtree | 237.30 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 69% | 15 | WR2A | 15 |
| Golden Tate | 223.10 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 69% | 17 | WR2A | 16 |
This Tier is a combination of WR1B and WR2A. Their Expected Clutch Ratings for 2017 should be between 65-69% (WR2A) and 70-80% (WR1B). I believe of the WR1B foursome; T.Y. Hilton is the most reliable pick. Very little has changed on his team for 2017, while Mike Evans and Keenan Allen both have new weapons on their teams which may hurt their targets this year. DeAndre Hopkins will have either Tom “Nacho Man” Savage or a rookie in DeShaun Watson. There’s room for improvement, but I’m still a little worried.
The Raiders’ combo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are great Fantasy receivers. The difference is Cooper’s ADP of WR9 and Crabtree’s ADP of WR21, even though Crabtree’s Clutch Rating was better than Cooper’s (69% vs 63%). So, you see the value there, right? Golden Tate’s ADP is currently at WR24, which makes him currently undervalued as well.
TIER THREE
| Player Name | Total Points | Pts Rank | Total CG | Total GP | CR % | 2016 Rank | 2017 Tier | 2017 Rank |
| Donte Moncrief | 102.60 | 76 | 7 | 9 | 78% | 5 | WR2B | 17 |
| Julian Edelman | 232.30 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 75% | 9 | WR2B | 18 |
| Brandin Cooks | 246.30 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 75% | 7 | WR2B | 19 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 246.90 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 81% | 2 | WR2B | 20 |
| Tyreek Hill | 202.00 | 22 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 26 | WR2B | 21 |
| Jamison Crowder | 193.50 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 28 | WR2B | 22 |
| Willie Snead | 192.00 | 32 | 9 | 15 | 60% | 30 | WR2B | 23 |
| Davante Adams | 246.70 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 22 | WR2B | 24 |
| Allen Robinson | 197.30 | 28 | 9 | 16 | 56% | 33 | WR3A | 25 |
| Doug Baldwin | 253.75 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 56% | 31 | WR3A | 26 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 199.10 | 25 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 27 | WR3A | 27 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 212.60 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 44% | 55 | WR3A | 28 |
So, the first part of this Tier is WR2B. These are receivers who should earn an ECR of 60-65%. Now, if you’re wondering why there are four receivers who earned OVER 75% last year in this group, then you’re not alone! Let’s start with Donte Moncrief. He’s very consistent WHEN he’s on the field. There’s the problem. His current ADP is WR28. If you can draft him as your WR3, fantastic! He’s worth it! Julian Edelman and Brandin Cooks have the same problem! They play for the same team now! If I had to pick between them, I’d take Edelman, because there’s a history between him and Brady. Cooks hasn’t earned that trust just yet. Lastly, Larry Fitzgerald is still a solid pick as your WR2 or WR3. However, I do not believe he’s going to end the season ranked second in consistency in 2017 like he did in 2016.
One quick consistency stat for Tyreek Hill. Over the last eight games of 2016, only TWO receivers earned more Clutch Games than Hill. His current ADP is WR26. He’s a very solid WR2 pick, but even better WR3 pick.
In the Tier WR3A, I believe if anyone can have a comeback season, it’s Allen Robinson in Jacksonville. Blake Bortles is working very hard to improve his mechanics. That should improve Robinson’s consistency in 2017. The others have too much risk for me especially since they have dropped in consistency from 2015 to 2016.
TIER FOUR
| Player Name | Total Points | Pts Rank | Total CG | Total GP | CR % | 2016 Rank | 2017 Tier | 2017 Rank |
| Sammy Watkins | 83.00 | 91 | 3 | 8 | 38% | 71 | WR3B | 29 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 146.10 | 55 | 8 | 12 | 67% | 19 | WR3B | 30 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 209.80 | 21 | 8 | 16 | 50% | 39 | WR3B | 31 |
| Stefon Diggs | 193.30 | 31 | 7 | 13 | 54% | 36 | WR3B | 32 |
| Brandon Marshall | 156.70 | 49 | 5 | 15 | 33% | 73 | WR3B | 32 |
| Rishard Matthews | 213.50 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 63% | 25 | WR3B | 33 |
| Eric Decker | 40.40 | 121 | 2 | 3 | 67% | 20 | WR3B | 35 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 140.00 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 50% | 46 | WR3B | 36 |
All of these receivers have an ECR of around 50-54%. Not great, but not terrible. Some of these receivers, I believe have a potential for a higher ceiling. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall were former teammates in the NFC East and now they are opponents. Jeffery is the true #1 receiver in Philadelphia while Marshall is second fiddle to Odell Beckham Jr. We’ll see if either one has any Fantasy consistency left in the tank for 2017. I’ll pick Jeffery over Marshall at this point. Taylor Gabriel earned all six of his Clutch Games in the last nine games last year, his current ADP is WR70! He’s a great sleeper at this point!
Well, there are your Expected Clutch Rankings for 2017 with some consistency rankings for the wide receivers in 2016 to support it. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Julio Jones or Mike Evans on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.
To find out more about consistency in Fantasy Football and how it can help your teams, just go to www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. There you can find the 2017 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide and many more tools to help your team improve!