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Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Tyreek Hill in Week 16?


December 22, 2016

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Tyreek Hill has been a massive home run threat for the Chiefs this season, and he took over as the WR1 with Jeremy Maclin on the shelf for several weeks. He has been incredible down the home stretch for fantasy football owners. This weekend he takes on the Denver Broncos for the second time in his young career. The last time he faced them was in week twelve, where he destroyed them for three types of scores (rushing, receiving and return).  Since that game, he has had a decline in opportunity, due to scheming and the return of Jeremy Maclin. Now the Broncos travel to Arrowhead, but he probably won’t get enough opportunity to start him in your fantasy league in the finals.

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Tyreek Hill has gotten a lot of publicity as over the last several weeks thanks to the incredible hot streak he is riding. This is a hot streak, however, that is likely to come to an end. Last week’s production looked consistent with his prior week’s production (68 yards and a score in each), but it was one 68-yard carry that made Hill’s week last week, and by “made his week,” I mean “was literally all of his production in the last game.” He got no other carries, made no flashy returns, and failed to reel in all three of his targets. The return of Jeremy Maclin certainly took its toll on Hill’s production last week.

The Chiefs offense simply doesn’t do enough or more fast enough for Hill to be a reliable fantasy producer this week on limited touches. He also has a rough matchup this week. While he was able to defeat the Broncos the last time he faced them, there’s a reason they’re the #1 defense against stopping wide receiver production. Now that the tape is out on Hill, Denver will be able to figure out a way to limit his opportunities, likely by making it appear to be a risky proposition for risk-averse Alex Smith to put the ball in his hands.

It’s entirely possible that Tyreek Hill takes a 60+ yard run to the house this week, but is that something you want to bank on? He is getting limited opportunities in the Chiefs offense now that Jeremy Maclin is back and Travis Kelce has reclaimed his spot at the top of this offense. He takes on the best wide receiver defense in the NFL, and they have a point to prove against him. You can’t trust him, so unless you need a massive boom/bust option, you can’t start him this week. 2 points or 20 points are both on the table with him.

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