Fantasy Football draft season is here, and the most intense weeks of drafting will happen over the next two weeks. As you enter your draft, you’ll need to avoid ticking time bombs or overdrafts, and go for the sleeper, under drafted players. Examining average draft position is important in determining when a player should be drafted. A sixth round sleeper is a third round overreach, so make sure you’re getting players at the value this draft season. This over drafted/under drafted series kicks off with three over drafted quarterbacks to avoid at their average draft position (ADP).
Cam Newton, Panthers (QB1, 19th overall)
Almost universally, the #1 quarterback from the previous year ends up the top drafted QB the next season. This is because the top quarterback is the face of the league and an easy candidate for people who see that quarterbacks score a ton of points. Why not, then, get the top ranked guy? Well, since 2000, only Daunte Culpepper (2003 and 2004) and Peyton Manning (2011) repeated as the top quarterback. While it’s fallacious to apply that logic specifically, you can look at Cam’s huge touchdown outlier and his pretty bad (sub-60%) completion percentage as reasons that Cam will regress. You can also apply value-based drafting and realize that getting a top-flight running back or wide receiver in the second round is a much better proposition He will still be a great fantasy football option, but he is not worthy of a second-round pick.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (QB6, 52nd overall)
Big Ben is one of the best quarterbacks in the game today and is quarterbacking one of the top offenses. Well, he would be, except their #2 wide receiver is suspended for the season, the best pass-catching running back in the game is suspended for three games, and Sammie Coates is disappointing, and Markus Wheaton is already hurt.
Oh, also, nobody knows when or if Ladarius Green will play this season (or ever again). Roethlisberger got a ton of draft slot helium because of his talent and weaponry, but a lot of that talent and weaponry around him is quickly falling by the wayside, but Big Ben’s fantasy football draft stock has not appreciably changed. Don’t be the sucker that takes him at the beginning/middle of the fifth round. He’s not worth it, unless you think Antonio Brown is going for 2,500 yards (he won’t).
Tom Brady, Patriots (QB8, 65th overall)
Last season Tom Brady was the #2, passing for a league-leading 36 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Those numbers are very good! Here’s the bad. His 25.4 fantasy points per game last season were his best since 2011, and he spent the last two years as the QB14 and QB11, meaning he was barely usable on a weekly basis in twelve-team leagues.
I’m going to bank on the rolling three-year average for Brady, not that he suddenly became more effective. His offensive line is quickly turning to shambles, and his preferred pass-catching back may miss some or all of the season. There’s a lot not to like about Tom Brady. Did I mention he’s 39? Remember how sad Peyton ended up? Granted, Touchdown Tom takes impeccable care of his body so his 39 could be… 35? He’ll probably be a middling quarterback, with little to no chance of being a week-in, week-out top-five QB.
Oh and all this will come in twelve games since he is suspended for the first four. Given that most fantasy leagues are 14 weeks (13 games), you’re getting Tom Brady for nine out of those thirteen games, meaning 30% of the fantasy regular season. All that for a sixth round pick? Yeah, no thanks.
Overall, I am of the philosophy that you should wait on a quarterback in one-quarterback leagues. There are only ten-to-twelve that you need to start on a weekly basis (given most league sizes). Don’t waste a high draft pick on a quarterback whose value (if not production) can be had with one of the other two-dozen quarterbacks that are every week starters in the NFL.