Every NFL season brings surprises, and 2025 promises to be no different.
Some franchises have spent the offseason reshaping their identities through coaching changes, smart drafting, and strategic signings.
While few expect underdogs to dominate, several clubs are quietly building momentum that could lead to seismic upsets. These are the teams that could shake up standings, upend playoff projections, and stun seasoned opponents this fall.
Arizona Cardinals: Quiet Rebuild, Loud Results
The Arizona Cardinals aren’t the league’s flashiest team, but they might just be its sneakiest.
Head coach Jonathan Gannon orchestrated a four-win improvement last year, and the numbers prove it wasn’t a fluke. The Cardinals improved their point differential by a staggering 146 points, moving from -125 to +21. That shift came despite the team fielding what was widely considered a bottom-tier roster, especially compared to other NFL teams.
Today, with defensive reinforcements like Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell, and Dalvin Tomlinson, Arizona finally has depth up front.
On offense, the team already ranked 9th in points per drive, proof that the unit is efficient, even under pressure. If the defense hits average, Arizona could control the NFC West narrative, not just participate in it.
New England Patriots: Recharging the Dynasty
There’s renewed belief in New England, and it’s not just sentimentality.
The Patriots overhauled their leadership with Mike Vrabel, restoring a sense of identity that had slipped in recent years. The impact is already being felt.
The team has built a defense that’s faster, stronger, and more cohesive, thanks to additions like Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, and Carlton Davis.
The offense has also quietly been retooled. Stefon Diggs adds a legitimate WR1 threat, while rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams inject speed and versatility.
Quarterback Drake Maye enters Year 2 with a better offensive line and more tools. He finished 17th in QBR last season, far from elite, but more than serviceable. With one of the league’s softest schedules, the Patriots doubling their win total isn’t wishful thinking; it’s realistic.
Chicago Bears: A Powerhouse in the Making?
Offseason hype in Chicago usually fades by October, but this year could be different.
First-year head coach Ben Johnson has crafted an offense centered on protection and efficiency. The Bears fortified their offensive line with Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman, giving rookie QB Caleb Williams the protection he lacked in 2024.
While Williams won’t likely contend for MVP yet, his arm talent and mobility, combined with a receiving corps featuring Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, give the offense explosive potential.
According to current NFL betting data and trends, Chicago is still a long shot, but that only adds intrigue to their potential.
The defense isn’t elite, but it doesn’t need to be. If safety Jaquan Brisker can stay healthy and the defensive front progresses, this could be a top-15 unit. With a brutal schedule and three playoff teams in the division, Chicago’s road won’t be easy, but that’s what makes their potential upsets so compelling.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Lawrence’s Redemption Tour
The Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to thrive behind Trevor Lawrence, but things haven’t gone as planned. Still, 2025 offers a clean slate and renewed optimism.
Hiring Liam Coen was a calculated move. The offense needed structure, and Coen’s system promises balance. A revamped ground game, along with new targets Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, could rejuvenate Lawrence’s production. Even a return to his 2022 form would give the Jaguars a chance to claim the AFC South.
Defensively, there’s more upside than risk. If Tyson Campbell returns to his 2022 shutdown form and Hunter contributes as a two-way player, Jacksonville could easily outperform expectations on both sides of the ball.
The team doesn’t need to dominate; they just need to close out games. And this year, they might finally have the tools to do it.
Las Vegas Raiders: Betting on Offense
Las Vegas is done rebuilding; they’re ready to win.
The biggest offseason splash was Geno Smith. He may not be Mahomes, but Smith offers stability and upside the Raiders haven’t seen in years. If he performs near his 2022 levels, he could be a top-12 quarterback. Add in rookie tight end Brock Bowers and Chip Kelly’s run-heavy approach featuring Ashton Jeanty, and this is a team that can score with anyone.
Defensively, questions remain.
The secondary lacks depth, and unless Maxx Crosby plays at a Defensive Player of the Year level all season, this group may struggle. Still, the Raiders don’t need to dominate defensively if the offense lives up to its top-10 potential. In a stacked AFC West, even an 8-9 finish could put them on the playoff bubble, enough to shake up the pecking order.
San Francisco 49ers: From Worst to First?
The 49ers are an anomaly on this list because they’ve been great before, but injuries knocked them off course.
Despite a 6-11 finish last season, advanced stats favored San Francisco. Their 6.7% DVOA was the best by an 11-loss team. Football Power Index currently ranks them as the most likely worst-to-first candidate, with 35.8% odds of winning the division and a 62.4% chance of making the playoffs.
This resurgence will be fueled by health. Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams are all returning. Their 2024 collapse was more about injury than regression. With the NFL’s easiest schedule, the 49ers are in a prime position to reclaim the NFC West and send a few contenders scrambling.
Don’t Sleep on the Numbers
FPI and DVOA may not capture headlines, but they paint a compelling picture. The Patriots and Bears each face uphill climbs, but favorable schedules, coaching improvements, and key acquisitions make them legitimate wild-card threats.
Arizona’s evolution from bottom-tier to competent could create havoc in a division that includes two playoff-caliber teams. Jacksonville, similarly, has all the ingredients for a bounce-back season, while Las Vegas might just outscore its way to relevance.
Meanwhile, the 49ers remind everyone that a bad season doesn’t mean a bad team.
It’s easy to look at the league’s usual suspects, Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles, and assume the postseason picture is already penciled in.
However, 2025 has other ideas. The teams listed above aren’t just dark horses. They’re fully capable of wrecking playoff dreams and delivering jaw-dropping Sundays. Keep your eyes on them this season, because the biggest upsets may not come from the underdogs you expect.