If you are looking for one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season through four weeks, look no further than the Atlanta Falcons. The team was expected to be an average team at best, but have come out looking a lot better than that. The Falcons enter this week at 3-1, and head to Colorado to take on the 4-0 Denver Broncos. The Broncos handled the Bucs a week ago in Tampa Bay, while the Falcons proved the Panthers are overrated, with a 48-33 win.

The Falcons started the season on a sour note, losing at home to the Buccaneers, 31-24. They then went on to win their next three games, including two road games. Every single one of their games have been total slugfests. Their lowest scoring game saw a combined 55 points, which was that week one loss. But they have not yet faced a defense of the caliber of the Broncos. So I hope Matt Ryan and Julio Jones fantasy owners enjoyed last week because this week sees the team’s first real test. On the road, against a legit defense will show us if these Falcons are for real.

So we already know the Broncos defense is solid. How about the offense? Well to this point, their offense has looked pretty darn good as well. They have scored 21, 34, 29 and 27 in their four games. Trevor Siemian has been better than many expected, but he did suffer a shoulder injury a week ago. The Broncos believe he will be able to play in this one, but it is by no means a lock.

But I am trusting Vegas in this one. They see the Broncos as six-point favorites despite their questionable quarterback situation. My guess is they are thinking the same thing I am: This Falcons club has played so well because they have not yet faced a big time opponent. So I am banking on the Falcons going on the road and coming back down to Earth in this one. And for the first time this season, I think the Falcons play in a game that results in the under.

For all week five NFL spreads and Over/Under’s, check out our NFL week 5 Betting Odds master-sheet here.

Line: Den -6, O/U: 47.5

Pick: Broncos and theUnder

Result: Atl 23 – Den 16, Falcons and the under