There is always that Group of 5 team that is undefeated at the end of the season, and there is always that conversation that immediately ensues: Should they be given a shot at the National Championship or College Football Playoff? Well, I’m here to give you that answer sternly: No, and here’s why.
Money
One of the biggest factors playing into this is money. If you put a team like Boise State or UCF in the College Football Playoff, the money that the NCAA makes for that game would dramatically decrease. The Group of 5 team represented would not bring in as many viewers as a high profile team such as Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Texas. If viewership goes down, ratings go down, and the amount of money that the NCAA receives for the game goes down. Given the NCAA’s background as a only-for-profit organization, they will not risk losing the money that they would if they let a Group of 5 team in the College Football Playoff.
Traditional Teams Get Automatic Bids
Voters would look more favorably at a program that has been traditionally great than a team that is currently great. They try every tactic in the book trying to hype up these traditional programs, including a high ranking that isn’t deserved. Lets look at a few examples of the NCAA overhyping historically great programs even though they currently are/were not that good.
2016 Texas: The Longhorns of Texas took on top ten opponent Notre Dame in their first game of the 2016 football season. Texas won in triple overtime, and despite being unranked at the time of the game, the following week was ranked number ten in the nation. Texas would finish the season 5-7.
2014 TCU: After Conference Championship Weekend of the 2014 season, TCU and Ohio State both had only one loss, and was waiting to hear the announcement of who would get the coveted fourth and final playoff spot. Lets compare the loss for each team: TCU lost to Baylor, who finished the season ranked 8th, in triple overtime. Ohio State lost to an unranked Virginia Tech by 14. So reasonably, to get in, Ohio State had to have beaten better competition, right? Well, TCU beat four ranked teams that season, whereas Ohio State beat two. The committee picked Ohio State simply because of the fact that they are a traditional powerhouse team, and that fact that they would bring in more money than TCU, despite TCU having a much better resume.
Quality Wins
The biggest factor that plays into this is a teams wins against good opponents. Every Power 5 Conference Champion will have at least one quality win, whether that be a team from within their conference, or the team they beat in the Conference Championship game. Group of 5 schools are lacking in this category because even though they are undefeated, they do not have a win against a good team in the committees eyes. They have to schedule Power 5 schools as their nonconference opponents to boost up their strength of schedule. The problem is that either these Group of 5 schools just are not willing to schedule good Power 5 schools, or the good Power 5 schools are not willing to schedule a good Group of 5 school in fear of getting a loss before conference play starts. One of these two things will have to happen for a good Group of 5 school to even be considered, much less actually make it to the College Football Playoff.
So How Can They Get In?
Under the current format of the College Football Playoff, the committee will say no to them ten times out of ten. Group of 5 schools will have to wait until the College Football Playoff expands to ever get a realistic shot at playing for a National Title.