So far this season, Matt Ryan has been the biggest fantasy football surprise among quarterbacks, as the relatively undrafted player bounced back from his disastrous 2015 campaign to become one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. Unfortunately for his owners, quarterbacks traveling to Seattle to take on Pete Carroll’s Seahawks traditionally stumble. This weekend should not be any different for Matt Ryan.[embedit snippet=”jeff-ads”]
To be clear, this isn’t a knock on Matt Ryan. He was rolling along up until last week, averaging 2.75 touchdowns per game with only two interceptions in four games while passing for a mind-boggling 368 passing yards. Last week he took a minor step back as the Falcons slowed down the passing game a bit to take on a stout Denver defense (Ryan threw for his fewest passes of the season last week). This is just facing a reality that Ryan’s torrid pace can’t continue in the face of a great Seahawks defense, and should have a final tally outside of the top-12 quarterbacks.
There are only so many different ways to tell you that the Seahawks defense is incredible. You know that. What I am hoping to purge from you is the idea that Matt Ryan is even more incredible than the Seahawks defense. Since the beginning of last year, quarterbacks against the Seahawks have averaged a paltry 12.7 fantasy points per game last year on 222 passing yards, 0.8 TD, and 0.9 INT. There have been as many QBs to score under 11 fantasy points against the Seahawks at home as have scored over fifteen, and there have been as many over 20 point performances (two) as there have been performances with fewer than five points). Also, the Seahawks have more multi-interception games at CenturyLink (two) than multi-touchdown games yielded (one)? This is the type of matchup you should fade, especially given Ryan’s proclivity for red zone interceptions since the beginning of last season.
Matt Ryan has been one of the fantasy football darlings thus far this season, but given the nature of his acquisition (waiver pickup or late-round flier), you have another option on your team. While Ryan has been set-and-forget thus far this season, he faces one of his toughest tests in Seattle. He will be rolling the rest of the season, but this weekend you should roll with someone else as your starting quarterback. The Seahawks defense is just too strong.