Sometimes news can arrive as a shock even when you’re aware that it might be coming. As we endure the long wait for the 2020 Formula 1 season to get underway, most of us F1 fans were aware that this would likely be the final season Sebastian Vettel spends at Ferrari. He arrived in a whirlwind of hype in 2014 with great expectations, but he departs with a cloud hanging over him. He was the man who was supposed to end Ferrari’s long wait for a Formula 1 World Championship at long last. Unless something truly incredible happens this season, he’ll have failed that objective.
The idea that Vettel’s stay at Ferrari might be drawing to a close was muttered around paddocks and press rooms as soon as the 2019 season drew to a close. It had been apparent from very early on in that season that Vettel wouldn’t be threatening Lewis Hamilton as the Brit romped to yet another world championship. It was, however, expected that the German former four-time world champion would at least manage to keep relative newcomer Charles Leclerc behind him at Ferrari. He wasn’t even able to do that. The young Frenchman began to beat Vettel in every possible category, and the relationship between the drivers quickly broke down as Vettel felt the pressure. As it turns out, he had every reason to be worried.
Shortly after 2020 began, we started to hear rumors that Vettel had been offered a new contract by Ferrari, but on terms that he was never likely to accept. It’s said that accepting the offer would have meant Vettel accepting a significant pay cut, and also formalized secondary status behind Leclerc as the team’s new primary driver. There was no way a man of Vettel’s achievements and ambitions would accept playing second fiddle to anybody, and Ferrari would have known that when they made the offer. A cynic would say that he was always supposed to reject the contract; that way, Ferrari can at least claim that they wanted to keep him, but he chose to walk away.
What happens next for the German is far next clear, but in the short term, he’s likely to have a miserable season. The first race of 2020 hasn’t even happened yet, but when it does, he’ll spend the whole time from that first race to the last one as a low priority for his team. Leclerc will get preferential treatment in every respect. Vettel will be asked to allow him to pass in crucial moments. He’ll be expected to defend him when he’s leading races. When it comes to pit stops, qualifying, and strategy – all of which Ferrari have struggled with badly in recent years – Leclerc will come second every time. Vettel is leaving the team because he doesn’t want to be a second class citizen, but he has to endure twelve months of second class treatment in order to get his freedom. It’s not going to be fun for him, and nor will it be fun for anybody close to him.
Normally, when such a decorated driver becomes available, every top team on the grid would be interested in his services. That isn’t the case right now. Although most 2021 lineups haven’t been finalized yet, it’s hard to see where Sebastian Vettel could possibly fit in. Mercedes have Hamilton and Bottas, and will move heaven and Earth to keep Hamilton in place for a further year. Bottas could leave, but the second seat wouldn’t interest Vettel – especially a second seat behind Hamilton. Max Verstappen isn’t going to leave Red Bull, and Vettel wouldn’t accept second billing to him there either. Beyond that, the driver very quickly runs out of options.
At times like this, we’re reminded that driver combinations are every bit as important as individual driver talents. It’s like taking a spin on an online slots game and landing one of the most valuable symbols on that game. You could consider Vettel as one of those symbols. As anyone who’s played online slots knows, you need a sequence of valuable symbols to get a win, and that sequence has to appear in the right order. A single one won’t do anything for you. As valuable a symbol as Vettel might be, he doesn’t appear to match well with anyone else. Value in isolation doesn’t win you anything in online slots, and it won’t win you anything in Formula 1 either.
As an outside bet, it’s just about possible that McLaren might be prepared to make room for Vettel if he was reasonable about his expectations. Lando Norris would be prepared to be an apprentice for Vettel, and Carlos Sainz might be moved on elsewhere if the team believes that they could get more value out of Vettel. The German is 32 years old. Lewis Hamilton is 35. A motivated Vettel should be capable of a few more years of top-class performance, and as the McLaren has improved significantly in the past two seasons, it might represent the best possible option for Vettel should he choose to remain in F1. It’s a long-shot, though.
Staying in Formula 1 might be the last thing on Vettel’s mind, though. Having won the world championship and seemingly lost some of his edge in the past two years, he might decide that this is the right time to walk away. There are other types of motor racing to try if he wants to stay involved in the sport. Perhaps, like Fernando Alonso, he’ll try his hand at racing touring cars. We’re almost positive that a competitive team would find room for him if he wanted to go to the USA and try Indycar instead. Retiring from Formula 1 doesn’t mean retiring from all motor racing competitions, but an increasing number of F1 insiders appear to be convinced that retirement is where Vettel is headed.
While the matter of Vettel’s future is debated at length in the press, Ferrari has a different problem to deal with. They’re going to need a new driver; one who will be happy to sit behind Leclerc in the pecking order. Daniel Ricciardo, who’s known to be unhappy at Renault, is a possible option. Whether Ricciardo’s ego would ever allow him to be secondary to anybody, though, is a big question. Perhaps it’s more likely that Ferrari will offer Nico Hulkenberg, who surprisingly lost his seat at Renault to the returning Esteban Ocon at the end of 2019. Hulkenberg is experienced, capable, and willing to accept second billing. In fact, he could be exactly what Ferrari needs.