American football has been gaining increasing popularity in the post-Soviet space over the past decade. Each year, the percentage of people who confuse it with rugby decreases, and fans of European football are less likely to take offense at Americans for using the term “soccer.” We are already having a lot of people placing bets using no deposit bonus codes on american football.
Types of bets on American football:
- Moneyline: The most straightforward and one of the two most popular betting markets in American football. It offers odds on two options: the victory of the first or second team. The NFL remains the only one of the American leagues where a tie is theoretically possible, but due to rule peculiarities, the likelihood of it is extremely low. From 1974 to 2017, only 22 tied matches were played.
- Point Spread (Handicap): Alongside moneyline bets, handicap betting is the most popular among players. Especially towards the end of the season when big clubs are fighting for the playoffs, their matches against underdogs are less interesting for analysis in terms of wins/losses, but handicaps provide food for thought.
For example, will the “Patriots” win against the “Dolphins” with a margin of 17 points? Then the bookmaker will offer a handicap of 16.5 with certain odds that the favorite will manage to defeat the opponent with a margin of 17 points or more.
It’s also important to understand that due to the specifics of the game, the value of handicaps changes non-linearly, not like in most other sports. In the NFL, the outcome of most matches is decided by a late three-point field goal, followed by a huge gap from other options—a touchdown with an extra point leading to a 7-point handicap.
Statistically, 30% of NFL matches end with a difference of 3 and 7 points. Therefore, the most popular handicaps for bookmakers are (-2.5) and (+3.5), (-6.5) and (+7.5). While in basketball, the probabilities of +7.5 and +6.5 handicaps are quite close, in American football, there is a huge gap between these two events.
- Totals (Over/Under): Here you can make a prediction on how many points the teams will score in total during the match, including overtime. On average, NFL teams score a total of 43 points per game, but due to the rules, 43 points in a match is a rare occurrence. The most popular totals in the NFL are 41 and 44 points, each occurring in about 4% of matches.
There’s also the possibility to bet “Over/Under” on individual teams—a good option if, for example, you have thoroughly studied one team’s attack and the opponent’s defense, but are unsure about the other betting lines.
Adjacent and interdependent markets in relation to totals include quotes on the team — the author of the most productive quarter, as well as bets on who will reach a certain number of points first.
On individual quarters and halves. All the mentioned types of bets can be found not only on the match with overtime taken into account, but also on its individual segments. The result is counted exclusively within the specified interval, and the element of chance increases — a weaker team finds it much easier to take a quarter from the favorite than to confidently play the entire game without setbacks.
On statistics. The offers can vary depending on the bookmaker — both on player statistics and team statistics. For example, will the quarterback gain a certain number of yards per game, will he fall victim to interceptions, and so on.
You can guess the number of touchdowns and field goals in the match, whether there will be at least one safety — a situation where the defense earns two points for their team by stopping the opponent in their end zone. There are many options, but the limits on bet outcomes are usually not very high.
How to Bet on American Football: Basics of Forecasting
Before placing a bet on American football, it is necessary to take some precautions and consider certain factors. Below are some tips that will help you make more successful bets. It cannot be said that these tips are a universal strategy for betting on American football, but knowing these things is necessary to at least avoid foolish losses.
- Think for yourself. Do not rely primarily on the line in your analysis. Before checking the odds, evaluate for yourself what chances each team has to score a certain number of points in the match or cover the handicap.
- Consider all factors together — weather, injuries, home field advantage, team form, and so on. Having formed your opinion, you can then draw parallels with the odds offered by the bookmaker.
- Do not bet on every match. Yes, unlike other American leagues, in the NFL, this is physically possible due to the less dense calendar. However, it’s unlikely that you will break the bank with the volume of bets.
- It is much more effective to choose a few teams each week for analysis that seem most promising to you, and focus on their matches. This way, it will be easier to track the dynamics of your game, identify mistakes, and develop a betting strategy.
Catch the line as early as possible. At the very start of the market, you can sometimes find more favorable odds for your desired bet, especially if your analysis leads you to favor the favorite.
Often during the week, fans of big teams load the line with bets on “Dallas,” “New England,” or “Green Bay,” and a -4 handicap at the start of the market turns into -7 a few hours before the match. Don’t be fooled by the hype, be vigilant — make smart predictions and look for the best moment to place your bet, without losing sight of the earliest stages of the market.
The home field advantage always deserves attention. Teams play matches in different stadiums, and each city has its own peculiarities — natural grass in some places, artificial turf in others, some teams are driven forward by fans, while others play in a chamber-like silence due to numerous unsuccessful seasons.
On thematic foreign websites about the NFL, you can familiarize yourself with the home factor for each team, but on average, bookmakers give the home team an advantage of 3 points in the line compared to their odds away.
Simplifying the analysis can help by viewing yardage statistics and quarterback form. American football is a showdown between the attacking and defensive lines of teams. Therefore, the simplest way to understand a team’s strength is to track how many yards the team’s offense gains and how many yards their defense allows per game episode. Naturally, teams that cover more territory than their opponent win more often.
The quarterback is the main creator on the field, and a huge percentage of success depends on his form and skill. If a team has a quarterback among the top five in the league, and there are no injuries in the offensive line, then betting on the favorite can be a good option.
The best quarterbacks play smart, throw strongly and accurately, and make decisions close to perfect under pressure. Even with a good defense, it’s still hard to cope — a capable quarterback will find weaknesses in it anyway. For example, “New England” led by Tom Brady in 2017 won 13 out of 16 matches, and even with an average odds of 1.30, the victories of the “Patriots” brought a decent profit.
Also worthy of attention for prediction are not star, but physically strong, agile quarterbacks with a quick throwing release and few mistakes. Their results can go up if the club surrounds such a quarterback with top-notch receivers. Their maneuverability and ability to catch difficult balls negate the shortcomings of the playmaker.
On the other hand, be wary of bets even on big teams whose quarterbacks have trouble making decisions and are prone to interceptions. The tension in the NFL, the most popular league in the USA, is immense, and mistakes under pressure can throw off a once-capable quarterback. It’s better to wait out an unsuccessful streak and return to the team when the quarterback feels confident again.