Fantasy football is nothing more than skillful luck. Owners can know as much as the experts but if a string of injuries hit than a season can be ruined in a few weeks. It does take a lot of time and knowledge to find the gems, but there is a little luck involved. That is why the attentive owners are the ones who will be successful.
Putting in the time now will bear fruit come playoff time. Figuring out whether a player will be a steal or a bust falls into the skillful part of luck. Here are the top 10 boom or bust players (in no order).
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
ADP-115
I debated putting Mariota on this list because he will not be a highly drafted quarterback. For those who like to wait on a quarterback, like myself, he will be a desirable choice. He has the arm to make all the throws, and the legs to pad his fantasy stats.
The problem would be his receivers or lack thereof. Corey Davis was drafted 5th overall in this year’s draft to give Mariota an actual receiving threat. After Davis, everyone is a huge question mark, besides the backfield.
DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry will keep defenders up in the box, they are the best running back tandem in the league so that Mariota could take advantage of defenses. That is a big could simply because of the lack of wide receiver experience.
Mariota’s top four receivers this year had 121 NFL catches last year. Fun fact number two, Mariota has 33 passing touchdowns in the red zone and no interceptions.
Verdict- Boom, I firmly believe that Mariota will be a stud this year. His legs and Corey Davis give him a top-6 finish.
Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints
ADP-53
This was my least favorite signing of probably the past five years. Peterson adds nothing to the New Orleans Saints. They already had Mark Ingram, who had his ups and downs, and replacing him with an aging back will do nothing for his confidence.
Either Sean Payton does not believe that Drew Brees has much left in his arm or Payton thinks that Peterson can return to his former glory. Do not expect much from Peterson. 900 yards is his ceiling.
Verdict-Bust, betting on aging backs rarely works out. Difficult to say but AD’s best days are behind him.
Every New England Patriot Not Named Tom Brady
I often get asked, “Robert you charismatic stallion of a man why are you so good at fantasy football? What is your key to notable success?”
I usually then ask my mom why she is asking me about my FF MLG Strats, and answer with if his name isn’t Tom Brady do not a Patriot. Yes, this is another year where people will love Rob Gronkowski or imagine the potential that Brandin Cooks has with Brady throwing him long balls.
Sorry owners just as the case has been for many years past, drafting Patriots in the higher round can be very risky. Edelman is a PPR stud, but in standard, he scores too few times to be reliable. Gronk gets injured almost every season to justify his price tag when tight ends fall off a cliff in production after the top 5. Cooks will disappoint as Brady spreads to ball around to everyone. By the way, it is not 2007, Brady’s deep ball is not all that spectacular.
The backfield will be a committee, and with no real goal-line threat odds are Mike Gillislee, James White, and Rex Burkhead will only steal value from each other.
Verdict- Bust(ish), draft them a few rounds below their ADP to get their real value.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington Redskins
ADP-41
If you can succeed with the Cleveland Browns, then you can succeed with the Washington Redskins. It makes a lot of sense. Kirk Cousins is a serious upgrade from Cody Kessler and Robert Griffin III.
Yes, the Browns often resorted to just chucking the ball up to Pryor but he has too much raw talent to regress.
Verdict- Boom, he should see an increase from last year’s numbers. 1,2000 yards and 10 touchdowns will be his line.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
ADP-50
He isn’t even the best quarterback in the division, and Kyle Shanahan just left for the 49ers. Ryan may have Julio Jones but do not expect anywhere close to what he threw for in 2016.
Verdict-Bust, he will regress back to his career average of 27-30 touchdowns.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP-24
Hey, you ever hear of that Ezekiel Elliot guy? Yeah, I thought so. Fournette has owners salivating over his Elliot-like potential. The only problem is that Blake Bortles is the quarterback for the Jaguars.
Related Post: Fantasy Football: Is Kirk Cousins a Top Sleeper Pick?
With Bortles scaring absolutely no one, defenses will load up the box against Fournette. Head Coach Tom Coughlin loves a bruising back but Fournette’s best years are still a few years away.
Verdict- Bust, owners, will overdraft him based on potential. He will have a decent season but nothing worth his ADP.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
ADP-37
I love Reed. He is the most dynamic player for the Redskins when he is on the field. That is the issue. He struggles with injuries. He has only played 46 games in four years.
When he is on the field, Kirk Cousins feeds him the ball and with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon departing Reed will see an uptick in targets.
Verdict-Boom, tight end has been a mess as of late for fantasy owners. Reed finally stays healthy and competes to be the best tight end.
Melvin Gordon, RB, L.A. Chargers
ADP-9
Gordon was looking like the best back in the game for the first four games. Well the best fantasy back, he had a nose for the end zone. The Chargers improved their offensive line and added Mike Williams in the draft.
This offense will be scary good if they stay healthy.
Verdict-Boom, he has top-three potential, and this will be the year it all comes together for him.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
ADP-54
Luck is the best talent at the quarterback position save for Aaron Rodgers. Outside of wide receiver T.Y. Hilton Luck has had no help. The offensive line is horrid, and every other receiver underwhelms. Luck is being wasted in Indy, and the trend will continue this year.
Also, the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and Jacksonville Jaguars are more talented teams. Luck and the Colts are the basement team.
Verdict-Bust, the offensive line will continue to hurt Luck’s value.