A general rule of thumb in betting on NFL teams is weeks 1 & 3 are notoriously unkind to those betting.
Week 1 is well, week 1: first game of the year and plenty of excuses can be made as to why a team lost or didn’t cover that should have. Some prove to be true and some prove to be just that, excuses.
Weeks 2 and 3, well I’ll save you the time and just simply say, trends are trends and sometimes it is just better to accept than try and challenge or figure out the why’s.
A key thing to look for as the season progresses is teams that travel after a Monday night win generally do not cover the following week.
Teams that lose by double digits or are completely blown out by division opponents and/or rivals tend to cover the following week.
So here are my Week 1 picks.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: CAR -2.5
Carolina Panthers win and cover
…..
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: MIA -3
Miami Dolphins win and cover
…..
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions:
PHI -4
Philadelphia Eagles win and cover
…..
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets:
BAL -7
Baltimore Ravens win and cover
…..
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears:
SF -7
I actually don’t like this game but San Franciso wins and covers
…..
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans:
IND -7
Indianapolis Colts win and cover
…..
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders:
WSH -2.5
Washington Commanders win and cover
…..
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:
NO -5.5
New Orleans wins and covers
…..
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -6.5
Cincinnati wins but Pittsburgh covers
…..
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: KAN -6
Kansas City wins and covers
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: GB -1.5
Minnesota wins and covers
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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers:
LA -3
Las Vegas wins and covers
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New York Giants at Tennessee Titans:
TEN -5.5
Tennessee wins and covers
…..
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys:
TB -2.5
Tampa Bay wins and covers
…..
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks:
DEN -6.5
Denver wins and covers
As mentioned at the top, weeks 1 and 3 tend to be hard to lock in. This year really is no different to me in betting or fantasy football… there is nothing that really jumps out to me and says this is a lock. However, in light of all that, the games will be played and the show must go on. So here are the 4 teams I’m choosing this week. As the season progresses I’ll go into more detail on picks and top picks.
Top picks:
Philadelphia Eagles -4
Tennessee Titans -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Carolina Panthers -2.5