In short….. It depends on who you listen to. The overwhelming majority of ‘draft gurus’ will tell you that this QB class is absolutely bottom heavy, and many QB’s will get over-drafted. They will insist that there is no top-end QB talent in this draft. While I do have concerns, I think there absolutely is talent. It just depends on ‘what price.’
The bottom line is any time you’re drafting a QB high, whether the class has ‘QB depth’ or not, you’re taking a huge monumental risk according to history. Look at some of the “best QB classes” we’ve had in past drafts. Many of those classes, there ended up being a whole lot of nothing, and n0 franchise QB’s coming out. Years like last year, where everyone said even ‘Wentz’ and ‘Goff’ weren’t great QB prospects and there was little else to offer. And there ended up being at the very least 2 franchise QB’s being drafted, one of them coming in the 4th round.
So yes… there is a risk. And there might be some disappointment with the fact that Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Luke Falk and Josh Allen returned to school. I think both Rudolph and Allen can be in the 1st round discussion next year with excellent seasons.
With that being said, I think there are a few guys in this QB class that might be worth the risk. The biggest question mark being “where?” Do you take a guy top 5 in this class that you aren’t sold on? Or do you see if there is value at whatever point in the draft you are before you take them?
My opinion differs from most, and I believe Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson are worth 1st round picks. That doesn’t mean if I am any team in this league I would take them in the 1st round. It does depend on team needs and the ability for a QB to succeed early on. If I’m the Browns, that question is going to be an interesting one.
Do I draft a QB knowing there is little in place for him to succeed? The Browns need to weigh risk assessment and deem that question. They might feel better getting a guy like Nathan Peterman or Davis Webb in the 3rd round to compete with Cody Kessler this upcoming season. And using their top few picks on more certainties, such as building defensive pieces. And adding more on offense to complement a franchise QB.
I think all 3 of Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson have absolute bust potential. Trubisky is a 1-year wonder, Mahomes played in a backyard offense, and Watson is far too reliant on his running. With that being said, I also believe Mahomes might be the most talented QB’s we’ve seen in years. Would I risk NOT drafting a QB I felt so highly about?
That is where the actual interview process is going to be huge. If a guy like Mahomes shows he can read a defense and possesses the high football IQ you want in a QB, I would absolutely pull the trigger on getting him, no matter how early it is.
When it comes to the 2017 NFL QB class there are no certainties, but I believe there is absolutely talent here.