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Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor: A Fight Not Worth Betting On

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Believe it or not, we are just over a month away from the “megafight” that is Floyd Mayweather vs Connor McGregor. The boxing world and UFC world will collide on August 26th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada, in what will be seen as one of the biggest fights of all-time.

But I’m sorry, it is one that I just can’t get too excited for. Just like Mayweather-Pacquiao from a few years ago, this fight is getting way too much hype, for what will ultimately be a letdown. When Money fought Manny, it was a fight that came at least five or seven years after it needed to happen. The result, one of the biggest snoozefests in the sport’s history.

Now we are taking a fighter from the UFC, and sticking him in a boxing ring, where he has never fought professionally or even as an amateur, against a man who is undefeated in boxing. Mayweather is a boxer known for playing defense and being smart in the ring. As a result, the most likely outcome will be another snoozer as Floyd runs most of the night, hitting McGregor when he is out of position thanks to his inexperience.

Which begs the question, why are we having this fight to begin with? It all started from a social media feud between the two icons from what I recall. Now, they decided to make it official for one reason. Money.

For starters, this will be a huge payday for both men in the ring. In addition, all the promoters and sponsors are sure to make out like bandits. The Pay-Per-View asking price for the fight is essentially $100, so you can bet they are making out. But finally, the city of Las Vegas is going to make out as the biggest winner of them all.

That is because so many people are going to be betting this fight. UFC fans will throw money on McGregor just because he is their guy. Some will throw money down because they simply hate one of the two guys. Others will be fully behind Mayweather, as they know McGregor stands virtually no chance of coming out victorious.

But I ask the question, why even bother wasting your hard-earned money on this fight? It simply makes no sense. Let’s look at it from each angle, shall we?

Let’s say you are like me, and you think Mayweather has this in the bag. Easy win, right? Lay down some money and you can turn a profit real quick. Well as good as that sounds, you need to check the line first. According to Vegas Insider, Money is a -700 favorite.

For those of you who do not speak gambling lingo, that means you would need to lay down $700 to win an additional $100. In other words, Vegas knows he is such a huge favorite, so for them to dish out some cash, you are going to need to lay down quite a bit. So if you are just the average Joe like myself, you probably aren’t planning on placing more than $700 on the fight anyway.

But let’s say you do just that. You place your bet of $700 on Money. The fights going along slowly, with Mayweather bobbing and weaving. Things are looking good, as he is controlling the fight. But in the 10th round, McGregor catches him with one really nasty shot and drops him. Bye bye $700.

Now, even if that does not happen, is risking that much for one seventh of your initial investment really worth it? When you factor in the idea that you might have spent $100 to watch this fight, then you really gain no profit even if he won. There just seems to be no logical reason to bet someone who is that big of a favorite.

That brings me to the underdog. When the fight was first announced, McGregor was roughly +1100. Now, he is sitting around +500. So if you dropped $100 on him right now, you would profit $500, plus your $100 back.

That sounds like a nice payday, no? Sure, it is. But when you factor in his initial line and the total mismatch this fight is, it just doesn’t seem to be high enough.

About a month ago, you could have been making more than double what you could now if McGregor pulled off the miracle. If the line was still sitting around +1000 or +1100, I would give it some thought, even though I don’t see McGregor winning. That’s because nothing is impossible, and I would much rather turn $100 into $1200 than $115 in case McGregor lands that one really nasty blow.

But at +500, I do not see enough reward for the odds he has to overcome. This is a man who is leaving his comfort zone by transitioning sports. So a guy who has never fought in a boxing ring, meaning his form is going to be a but rusty, is taking on a guy who is a technician in the ring. Floyd knows how to move in the ring, and will pick anyone apart when they make a technical error.

The moral of the story here is, at the current odds, this is a fight that is simply not worth betting on. If you wanna kiss your money away on McGregor, have at it. Or if you wanna make little to no profit on Mayweather, be my guest. But I am not dropping any money on this one, and that includes paying to watch it.

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