Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Matt Forte in Week 13?
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Over the last few seasons in Chicago, Matt Forte was a fantasy football stud mainstay. This season he moved to the Jets, and plummeted down draft boards. Coming into the season, there was a lot to not like about Forte. He was on the wrong side of 30, the Jets were a mess, Bilal Powell ended the season strong and promised to eat into his reps. Last week was every Forte fear rolled into one, as he had only 13 carries and four targets for 50 yards even, and no scores.
However, the Matt Forte Story for most of the season is one that is mostly solid with flashes of brilliance. He had a four-game stretch where he was borderline unusable (6.4 points, 4.3 points, 6 points and 2.2 points), but other than that he has been a mid-level RB2 to a low-end RB1 in any given week, outpacing his RB3 or zero RB RB2 draft stock. Last week he had only 5 fantasy points, but he surpassed 100 combined yards in each of the six weeks prior, meaning that for half of the fantasy regular season, double-digit points was his absolute floor. He cratered last week against the Patriots, posting his lowers total since he faced off against the Cardinals in week six.
This week, however, Forte takes on a better matchup than he faced in all those games where he cratered. His opponent, the Colts, have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Outside of three games this season, the Colts have allowed double-digit fantasy points to every lead running back they’ve faced. Their defense is less-than stellar, and make for a great matchup for Forte.
While many of us counted him for dead before the season, Matt Forte has been the real deal. Powell has chewed into his production, but he’s gotten at least 14 touches in every game this season but one, and has gotten at least 20 carries (let alone targets) in five. He has been extremely productive for fantasy football, mostly due to his volume. He takes on a Colts team that is physically incapable of keeping any back who gets 15 or more touches for production. Matt Forte is a good play this week as a second running back as he takes on the iffy Colts run defense. The only impediment to his production would be the Jets suddenly switching direction and going with Bilal Powell, but I don’t foresee that happening this week.