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Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Dak Prescott in Week 13?


November 30, 2016

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There hasn’t been a bigger surprise at quarterback this season than Dak Prescott. He’s taken the league by storm after stepping in for, and then usurping, Tony Romo. But it hasn’t just been the NFL that has been caught up in Dakmania. Prescott is the toast of many fantasy football leagues this season. A player that could be had for free due to his unheralded background and lack of draft stock finds himself in the weekly conversation for starting, and not even for streamers. This week he takes on a tough Minnesota defense, so should you shy away from Prescott this week?

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Let’s take a look at Prescott’s performance in fantasy football so far this season, since so many times real-life quarterback production does not show up in the stat sheet and doesn’t end up on fantasy football rosters. On a per-game basis this season, Dak is the #10 quarterback in four-point passing touchdown leagues, at 20.49 fantasy points per game.

He is one of only eleven quarterbacks this year to average 20+ points at the position, and he had some ground to make up. In the first six games of the season, Dak crossed the 20-point threshold just once. Since the Cowboys’ bye, Dak has gone under 21 fantasy points just once. He’s flipped the script thoroughly and has become a set-and-forget weekly starter for your squad.

However, Prescott takes on a stout Minnesota defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks this year. He is one of two teams to not allow a single 20-point day to fantasy signal callers (with the Giants), and are the only team in the league to not allow a single 19-point day to quarterbacks this year.

The high water mark this year against the Vikings is Aaron Rodgers’ 18.42 fantasy points, followed by Kirk Cousins’ 18.38. Here’s the rub with the Vikes, though… despite the stat above, they’ve given up at least 15 fantasy points to quarterbacks in seven-of-eleven games this year (except Eli, Osweiler, Wentz and Cutler in a four-week stretch where no QB hit that threshold). That means that a quality quarterback is going to hit at least 15 points against them, but is unlikely to get over 20 (and they haven’t yet this year).

If you need a solid 15-20 this week, then slot Dak into your lineup, but don’t expect a big day from him. The Vikings defense has shut down opposing quarterbacks, but not all the way down (except a month when they were otherworldly). He will be a solid contributor, but if you need some punch from the position you may be better off looking elsewhere.

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